The failure of Emmanuel Macron’s bet on employment?

The battle for jobs in France is a central issue for every president. Since his election, Emmanuel Macron had championed a continued decline in unemployment, continuing a dynamic that began in 2015. However, a worrying tremor is now shaking the labor market: a slight increase in unemployment was recorded this summer, according to INSEE. At a time when the French economy seems to be faltering, the question arises: is the president’s bold bet on employment about to fail? While the unemployment rate had fallen to 7.1% at the start of 2023, could the recent increase to 7.4% herald the return of a worrying wave, shaking the gains of recent years? Analyzing the current situation is crucial to understand the potential impact on French society and to anticipate future public policy challenges.

Recent news highlights a slight quiver of the rate of unemployment in France, going from 7.1% to 7.4%, and raises questions about the future of the job market under the presidency of Emmanuel Macron. The latter, who came to power with an unemployment rate of 9.5%, had made reducing unemployment a political priority before reducing this figure to 7.1% at the start of 2023.

However, although this slight movement is not yet alarming, it could well be the foretaste of a more considerable disturbance. Under the presidency of François Hollande, France experienced a peak of 10.5% unemployment, despite the bold promise to “reverse the unemployment curve”.

Faced with these persistent challenges on the employment front, expectations initial remarks towards Macron were significant. He had to not only consolidate the successes achieved but also confront the negative signals which, since last March, have been dangerously accumulating.

The job market in France is experiencing a period of turbulence, putting to the test the bold bet initiated by Emmanuel Macron upon his arrival in power. Although the rate of unemployment recorded a notable drop from 9.5% in 2017 to 7.1% at the start of 2023, a worrying tremor appeared this summer with an increase of 0.1 point to reach 7.4%, perhaps announcing the return of greater obstacles.

This recent increase, although still moderate, contrasts severely with the president’s ambition to reduce unemployment to 5%, a target he set during his 2017 election campaign. Since March 2024, approximately 50,000 jobs have disappeared, symbolizing the continuing challenges to achievefull employment goal.

The warning signs are not just limited to numbers. Many economic indicators show that key sectors could soon face significant job losses, as mentioned by the Minister of Industry. These gloomy prospects resonate with the specter of the failure of an economic policy focused on improving productivity, reform of France Work and the revision of compensation rules.

The disconnect between stated goals and achieved results becomes even more palpable through human stories. Although some sectors have seen gains, pro-business policies have not always had the expected effects on economic growth. As a result, many families today find themselves in precarious situations, exacerbating social frustrations.

This situation comes in a context where the president was already facing strong criticism after the “yellow vest” movement. The choice to favor purchasing power was not enough to consolidate lasting confidence, leaving doubt about the capacity of the State to positively influence the labor market.

THE employment policies implemented by Emmanuel Macron have sparked lively debates within the economic community and among social analysts. While the French president could boast of having reduced the unemployment from 9.5% when he came to power to 7.1% at the start of 2023, the recent tremors in the job market have revived criticism.

Indeed, according to figures published by INSEE on November 13, unemployment increased by 0.1 point to reach 7.4% during the summer. Although this increase may seem small, it must be interpreted in a broader context. Many economists warn that this thrill could be a harbinger of a wave of greater difficulties to come.

THE experts are divided on the causes of this increase. Some point to an unfavorable international economic situation, while others criticize Emmanuel Macron for employment management that is too focused on the flexibility of the labor market, thus creating increased precariousness for workers.

At the same time, negative signals continue to accumulate. Since March, 50,000 jobs have been threatened by site closures and a reduction in industrial activity. This trend fuels concerns about the solidity of the French job market.

As analysts examine these trends, they ask themselves crucial questions: Are the reforms being implemented enough in the long term? Should we rethink economic policy to better respond to global challenges? The answers to these questions will determine the future of French workers in the face of an ever-changing economy.

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