Labor market: towards a period of stagnation?

While France boasted of a historic decrease in the unemployment rate in recent years, the recent announcements of job cuts and the rise in difficulties in certain industrial sectors are signaling the time for a necessary awakening. The specter of a stagnation of the French labor market is returning to haunt people’s minds. More and more voices are being raised to point out an implacable reality: despite nine years of continuous decline, unemployment could well be on the rise again. In this worrying context, understanding the factors that favor this reversal is crucial. Not only for the millions of workers concerned, but also for the political and economic decision-makers who shape our professional future. This article proposes to explore the elements at the origin of this emerging crisis and to reflect on the potential solutions to stop this trend.After a period of nine years of decline, the

unemployment rate in France is now in the throes of a reversal and seems to be on the rise again. Recent job cuts announcements are evidence of this worrying trend. The ambitious goal of reducing unemployment to 5%, comparable to full employment in 1979, seems increasingly out of reach. Currently, we are seeing unemployment fluctuating around 7.3%, with projections of a rise to 7.7% by the end of 2025. Alarming examples include the closure of the Michelin factories in Cholet and Vannes, impacting 1,254 employees, as well as the slew of 2,389 jobs at Auchan. INSEE figures announce the elimination of 25,000 jobs in recent months, increasing doubts about the stability of the job market. Jobs eliminated

No sector has been spared by this crisis. The

construction

is experiencing a notable collapse with the number of building permits for housing falling, reaching their lowest levels in ten years. The sector automobile also faces serious challenges such as the transition to electric vehicles and international competition. Even the aeronautics , once a stable sector, is now affected by layoffs.Beyond the deletions, Unédic plans aincrease in bankruptcies

, reaching 60,000 this year. This contrasts with a trend of 50,000 to 55,000 before the Covid crisis. Furthermore, temporary employment has suffered a decline for six consecutive quarters, increasing workers’ anxiety. Despite these negative signals, more than550,000 vacant positions

persist in the country. However, in June 2022, 59% of companies indicated that they were having recruitment difficulties, a figure which fell to 30% today, indicating structural market complexity. The disconnect between job offers and demand highlights the underlying challenges of the job market in France. After nine years of continuous decline, the unemployment rate

in France could experience a further increase. Various economic, technological and social factors contribute to this worrying situation. Let’s decipher these crucial elements. Economic pressures The recent closure of two Michelin factories in Cholet and Vannes, as well as job cuts at Auchan, raise fears of a further rise in

unemployment

. According to INSEE, 25,000 positionshave been deleted in the last three months. The global and national context remains uncertain, significantly affecting business recruitment. Technological impact Technological transformations, while essential, also pose challenges. The automobile sector, faced with a need for massive investment for its conversion to electric, is fighting against Chinese competition. This environment is pushing some companies to reduce their workforce.

Social factors

At the same time, the number of people registered with France Travail without activity is on the rise again, reaching more than

3 million people

. Paradoxically, approximately 550,000 positionsremain vacant in the country, a figure probably lower than the reality. The mismatch between required and available skills persists, making it difficult for authorities to resolve. Long-term consequences This stagnation is accompanied by an alarming increase in bankruptcies, reaching

60,000

this year, a significant increase compared to the period before Covid. Temporary employment, a key indicator of economic health, is declining for the sixth consecutive quarter. All these elements combined illustrate economic fundamentals not very encouraging. discover labor market trends and dynamics, explore job opportunities and the skills in demand to succeed in an ever-changing professional world. The current situation of

is marked by a rise in job cuts and a progression of unemployment rate . After nine years of decline, the latter is expected to experience an increase, potentially reaching 7.7% by the end of 2025. Let’s analyze how this dynamic compares to that observed in countries like Canada, Germany and the United States. The French labor market faces stagnationIn France, the economic situation is affected by factors such as the high cost of energy and an unstable political context. This is leading to a reluctance among companies to hire, with sectors such as automotive and aerospace facing significant difficulties. More than 3 million people are currently registered with France Travail without activity, while more than 550,000 positions remain vacant.

Comparison with Canada

In Canada, the labor market shows a certain

resilience

, with relatively low unemployment in recent years. However, the country faces similar challenges, such as energy transitionsand increasing levels of public debt. Canada has recently focused on integrating immigrants to fill vacant positions, a strategy less developed in France. Comparison with Germany Germany is often considered an economic powerhouse in Europe, with a historically low unemployment rate. However, the transition to electromobility poses new challenges for the German automotive sector, similar to France. Germany stands out for its strong commitment to apprenticeships, providing a strong path to reducing youth unemployment, while France is still struggling to optimize this approach.

Comparison with the United States

In the United States, the job market rebounded after the pandemic, showing falling unemployment. However, job insecurity remains a matter of concern, unlike in France where permanent contracts are more common. Growing protectionism in the United States could also negatively influence the labor market, just as in France where political and economic uncertainty is slowing hiring.

Similarities and differences

In summary, stagnation in the labor market is not exclusive to France. Similarities with Canada, Germany and the United States include specific struggling sectors and significant numbers of job vacancies. Nevertheless, each country adopts distinct strategies, such as integrating immigrants in Canada or learning in Germany, to overcome these challenges.

Illustrative image.

© Jean-Marc Barrere / Hans Lucas via AFP

Current issues
The labor market in France is going through a critical period, marked by an expected increase in

unemployment rate

after nine years of decline. THE announcements of job cuts such as those at Michelin and Auchan are worrying. It is imperative to act to avoid economic stagnation. Focus on key sectors Certain sectors are particularly vulnerable. THE

building

, for example, is experiencing a significant drop in the number of building permits. The sector automobilemust overcome many challenges such as the integration of electric vehicles and international competition. Even developing sectors, such as aeronautics , must face restructuring.Possible solutionsTraining and professional retraining

: To respond to the 550,000 vacant positions, it is crucial to strengthen continuing training and retraining programs, adapting skills to emerging sectors.

• Stimulate investment : Encouraging investment in green and digital infrastructure could create sustainable and diversified jobs.
• Encourage innovation : It is essential to support innovative start-ups and SMEs which can boost the economy and create new jobs.
• Outlook for the future Unédic forecasts a slight increase in the rate of

unemployment

up to 7.7% in 2025. However, with appropriate public policies and a stabilized economic environment, it is possible to reverse the trend. Reducing government debt could also strengthen business confidence and encourage hiring. Acting now is essential to ensure a resilient and dynamic labor market. The commitment of economic and political actors is more crucial than ever to navigate this period of uncertainty. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_TzEfkcC44

A period of

stagnation

on the labor market in France results in a rising unemployment rate after a period of significant decline. For workers, this means increased uncertainty and precariousness, with more people registered with France Travail without any activity. Thousands of jobs are also being cut in different sectors, such as the automobile and aeronautics industries. For the companies

, this stagnation can lead to a slowdown in economic activity with challenges linked to factors such as the high cost of energy or protectionism. Despite the existence of many vacant positions, the difficulty of hiring remains a persistent problem. These uncertainties also affect the business confidence, who are hesitant to invest and hire. The overall economic situation, combined with national political tensions, accentuates the climate of unease, making the task of combating unemployment particularly complex for the government.