Labor market: towards a period of stagnation?

While France boasted a historic reduction in the unemployment rate in recent years, recent announcements of job cuts and the rise of difficulties in certain industrial sectors signal the time for necessary awareness. The specter of a stagnation of the labor market French returns to haunt minds. More and more voices are being raised to point out an implacable reality: despite nine years of continuous decline, unemployment could well rev up. In this worrying context, understanding the factors that favor this turnaround is crucial. Not only for the millions of workers affected, but also for the political and economic decision-makers who shape our professional future. This article proposes to explore the elements at the origin of this emerging crisis and to reflect on potentially possible solutions to stem this trend.

After a period of nine years of decline, the unemployment rate in France is now in the throes of a reversal and seems to be on the rise again. THE recent announcements of job cuts bear witness to this worrying trend. The ambitious goal of reducing unemployment to 5%, comparable to full employment in 1979, seems increasingly out of reach. Currently, we observe a fluctuation in the unemployment rate around 7.3% with projections of an increase to 7.7% by the end of 2025.

Alarming examples include the closure of the Michelin factories in Cholet and Vannes, impacting 1,254 employees, as well as the slump of 2,389 positions at Auchan. INSEE figures announce the elimination of 25,000 positions in recent months, increasing doubt about the stability of the job market.

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No sector is spared from this crisis. THE building is experiencing a notable collapse with the number of building permits for housing falling, reaching their lowest levels in ten years. The sector automobile also faces serious challenges such as the transition to electric vehicles and international competition. Even theaeronautics, once a stable sector, is now affected by layoffs.

Beyond the deletions, Unédic plans a increase in bankruptcies, reaching 60,000 this year. This contrasts with a trend of 50,000 to 55,000 before the Covid crisis. Furthermore, temporary employment has suffered a decline for six consecutive quarters, increasing workers’ anxiety.

Despite these negative signals, more than 550,000 vacant positions persist in the country. However, in June 2022, 59% of companies indicated that they were having recruitment difficulties, a figure which fell to 30% today, indicating structural market complexity. The disconnect between job offers and demand highlights the underlying challenges of the job market in France.

After nine years of continuous decline, the unemployment rate in France could experience a further increase. Various economic, technological and social factors contribute to this worrying situation. Let’s decipher these crucial elements.

Economic pressures

The recent closure of two Michelin factories in Cholet and Vannes, as well as job cuts at Auchan, raise fears of a further rise in unemployment. According to INSEE, 25,000 positions have been deleted in the last three months. The global and national context remains uncertain, significantly affecting business recruitment.

Technological impact

Technological transformations, while essential, also pose challenges. The automobile sector, faced with a need for massive investment for its conversion to electric, is fighting against Chinese competition. This environment is pushing some companies to reduce their workforce.

Social factors

At the same time, the number of people registered with France Travail without activity is on the rise again, reaching more than 3 million people. Paradoxically, approximately 550,000 positions remain vacant in the country, a figure probably lower than the reality. The mismatch between required and available skills persists, making it difficult for authorities to resolve.

Long-term consequences

This stagnation is accompanied by an alarming increase in bankruptcies, reaching 60,000 this year, a significant increase compared to the period before Covid. Temporary employment, a key indicator of economic health, is declining for the sixth consecutive quarter. All these elements combined illustrate economic fundamentals not very encouraging.

The current situation of French labor market is marked by a rise in job cuts and a progression of unemployment rate. After nine years of decline, the latter is expected to experience an increase, potentially reaching 7.7% by the end of 2025. Let’s analyze how this dynamic compares to that observed in countries like Canada, Germany and the United States.

The French labor market faces stagnation

In France, the economic situation is affected by factors such as the high cost of energy and an unstable political context. This is leading to a reluctance among companies to hire, with sectors such as automotive and aerospace facing significant difficulties. More than 3 million people are currently registered with France Travail without activity, while more than 550,000 positions remain vacant.

Comparison with Canada

In Canada, the labor market shows a certain resilience, with relatively low unemployment in recent years. However, the country faces similar challenges, such as energy transitions and growing levels of public debt. Canada has recently focused on integrating immigrants to fill vacant positions, a strategy less developed in France.

Comparison with Germany

Germany is often considered an economic powerhouse in Europe, with a historically low unemployment rate. However, the transition to electromobility poses new challenges for the German automotive sector, similar to France. Germany stands out for its strong commitment to apprenticeships, providing a strong path to reducing youth unemployment, while France is still struggling to optimize this approach.

Comparison with the United States

In the United States, the job market rebounded after the pandemic, showing falling unemployment. However, job insecurity remains a matter of concern, unlike in France where permanent contracts are more common. Growing protectionism in the United States could also negatively influence the labor market, just as in France where political and economic uncertainty is slowing hiring.

Similarities and differences

In summary, stagnation in the labor market is not exclusive to France. Similarities with Canada, Germany and the United States include specific struggling sectors and significant numbers of job vacancies. Nevertheless, each country adopts distinct strategies, such as integrating immigrants in Canada or learning in Germany, to overcome these challenges.

Illustrative image.
© Jean-Marc Barrere / Hans Lucas via AFP

Current issues

The labor market in France is going through a critical period, marked by an expected increase in unemployment rate after nine years of decline. THE announcements of job cuts such as those at Michelin and Auchan are worrying. It is imperative to act to avoid economic stagnation.

Focus on key sectors

Certain sectors are particularly vulnerable. THE building, for example, is experiencing a significant drop in the number of building permits. The sector automobile must overcome many challenges such as the integration of electric vehicles and international competition. Even developing sectors, such asaeronautics, must face restructuring.

Possible solutions

• Training and professional retraining : To respond to the 550,000 vacant positions, it is crucial to strengthen continuing training and retraining programs, adapting skills to emerging sectors.
• Stimulate investment : Encouraging investment in green and digital infrastructure could create sustainable and diversified jobs.
• Encourage innovation : It is essential to support innovative start-ups and SMEs which can boost the economy and create new jobs.

Outlook for the future

Unédic forecasts a slight increase in the rate of unemployment up to 7.7% in 2025. However, with the right public policies and a stabilized economic environment, it is possible to reverse the trend. Reducing government debt could also boost business confidence and encourage hiring.

Acting now is essential to ensure a resilient and dynamic labor market. The commitment of economic and political stakeholders is more crucial than ever to navigate this period of uncertainty.

A period of stagnation in the labor market in France translates into an increase in the unemployment rate after a period of significant decline. For workers, this means an increase in uncertainty and precariousness, with more people registered with France Travail without any activity. Thousands of jobs are also being eliminated in different sectors, such as the automotive and aeronautics industries.

For businesses, this stagnation can lead to a slowdown in economic activity with challenges related to factors such as high energy costs or protectionism. Despite the existence of many vacancies, the difficulty in hiring remains a persistent problem. These uncertainties also affect the confidence of businesses, which hesitate to invest and hire. The global economic situation, combined with national political tensions, accentuates the climate of unease, making the task of combating unemployment particularly complex for the government.